Editor's Note:

The Saudi-American Forum wishes to thank Dr. Gause for permission to share this important contribution to the dialogue on US-Saudi relations with you.  This paper was originally published by the Brookings Institution, Saban Center for Middle East Policy. 

"The Approaching Turning Point: The Future of U.S. Relations with the Gulf States" is being provided to Saudi-American Forum members in weekly serials due to the length of the report.  A complete version is posted to the Saudi-American Forum library.

America's direct military role in Gulf security began with the collapse of the U. S.-Iranian relationship with the Iranian Revolution in 1979. As long as Washington's relationship with this largest and most powerful Gulf state remains hostile, there will be a need for an American military presence in the area. A friendly regime in Baghdad might mitigate that need, but will not eliminate it. Indeed, the first major American military deployment in the area occurred in 1987, when the United States was still cooperating with Saddam's regime. The fact that the Iranian regime seems now to be openly pursuing the acquisition of nuclear weapons will only intensify American worries about security in the area, and will reinforce for the Gulf monarchies the importance of their American security link. Until there is a fundamental change in American-Iranian relations, or until the world economy ceases to run on oil, the U. S. is fated to be directly involved politically and militarily in the Gulf.

The structure of the U. S. involvement in the Gulf, as it has developed since the Gulf War of 1990-91, however, has to change. It is politically impossible to maintain the kind of open military relationship with Saudi Arabia that has developed over the last 12 years. The attacks of September 11th and their fallout in both our country and Saudi Arabia have made the political costs of maintaining a permanent American military presence in the kingdom too great, both for the U. S. and for the Saudis. Of necessity, the U. S. will have to rely more on the smaller Gulf countries to support its military presence in the region. 

The new, post-Iraq war security structure for American policy toward the GCC states should rest on these bases:

• A return to a security relationship with Saudi Arabia characteristic of the pre-Gulf War period: close and cooperative, but without American military forces stationed in the kingdom.

• Avoiding the temptation to see Saudi Arabia as an enemy. Our decades-long relationship with the Saudis gives us important leverage with them on oil issues and on the war on terrorism. We need to use this leverage to push them to further cooperation with the United States. A policy of open hostility toward Riyadh forfeits that leverage, with no prospect of producing a friendlier government in Arabia.

• A nuanced position on domestic political reform in Saudi Arabia, that openly emphasizes economic change, discretely encourages political reform but not a rush to elections, and stays away from highly charged social-cultural issues like women's rights and the education system. We should not hesitate to state our support for American values on these issues latter issues rhetorically, and to encourage change that comes from within the Saudi system, but we need to avoid making them the centerpiece of the relationship.

"The Approaching Turning Point: The Future of U.S. Relations with the Gulf States" is being provided to Saudi-American Forum members in weekly serials due to the length of the report.  A complete version is posted to the Saudi-American Forum library.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

F. Gregory Gause, III is an Associate Professor of political science at the University of Vermont, and Director of the University's Middle East Studies Program. He was previously on the faculty of Columbia University (1987-1995) and was Fellow for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York (1993-1994).

His research interests focus on the international politics of the Middle East, with a particular interest in the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian/ Arabian Gulf. He has published two books: Oil Monarchies: Domestic and Security Challenges in the Arab Gulf States (Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1994) and Saudi-Yemeni Relations: Domestic Structures and Foreign Influence (Columbia University Press, 1990). His scholarly articles have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Middle East Journal, Washington Quarterly, Journal of International Affairs, Review of International Studies and in other journals and edited volumes. He has testified on Gulf issues before the Committee on International Relations of the U. S. House of Representatives.

Professor Gause received his Ph. D. in political science from Harvard University in 1987, and studied Arabic at the American University in Cairo and Middlebury College.