|
|
| January
10, 2003 |
SAF
Newsletter Issue: #13 |
Send
This Newsletter to a Friend |
| IN
THIS
ISSUE |
Current
News
- Hoping
For
Peace
But
Preparing
For
War
- Saudi
Arabia
Keeps
Options
Open
on
Role
in
Iraq
War
- Saudi
Arabia
Wants
UN
Evidence
Iraq
Has
Mass
Destruction
Weapons
Before
Deciding
on
Involvement
in
War
- Saudis
Earn
Political
Points,
Revenue
With
Extra
Oil
- Saudis
Tread
Lightly
on
Use
of
Prized
Airbase
- While
Lieberman
Hasn't
Declared,
He's
Already
in
Middle
East
Quagmire
- Who
Will
Control
Iraq's
Oil?
- U.S.
Sees
Opportunity
to
Transform
Mideast
- Highlight
Truth
of
Islam:
Abdullah
In
Depth
Reporting,
Analysis
&
Commentary
|
CURRENT
NEWS
...reporting
on
issues
important
to
stakeholders
in the
U.S.-Saudi
relationship... |
[Check
the
current
edition
of the GulfWire
Digest
for
more
news on
Gulf
affairs]HOPING
FOR
PEACE
BUT
PREPARING
FOR WAR
Persian
Gulf
Nations
Stockpile
Supplies,
Brace
for
Flood of
Refugees
From
Iraq
"For
some
countries
in the
region,
preparing
for a
war they
still
hope to
avert
raises
delicate
political
issues.
Saudi
Arabia,
in
particular,
declines
to
discuss
the need
for
preparation,
and the
state-controlled
news
media
often
ignore
the
issue.
'I don't
see any
preparations,'
said
Osama
Nugali,
a
spokesman
for the
Saudi
Foreign
Ministry.
'We're
not
feeling
that the
war is
imminent.
We're
still
hoping
there
will be
no war
in the
region.
We're
still
hoping
it will
be
resolved
peacefully.'
Yet
privately,
according
to some
journalists
and
analysts,
the
ruling
family
in
Riyadh
has
begun
taking
at least
modest
precautions.
Sirens
not used
since
Iraqi
Scuds
were
fired on
the
Saudi
capital
during
the Gulf
War have
been
tested
recently,
oil
facilities
have
been
running
emergency
drills
in case
of
attack
and the
government
has been
planning
to
handle
an
influx
of
refugees
at the
border.
Analysts
said the
government
is leery
of
appearing
too
close to
the U.S.
war
effort.
'They
don't
want to
send a
message
to the
public
that
this is
your
war,
that
this is
a Saudi
war,'
said
Jamal
Khashoggi,
a
prominent
Saudi
journalist
based in
Jiddah.
'Last
time we
were
part of
the war.
We
fought
Iraq.
This
time,
we're
not
fighting...'"
Complete
report...
SAUDI
ARABIA
KEEPS
OPTIONS
OPEN ON
ROLE IN
IRAQ WAR
"...the
powerful
spotlight
beamed
from a
largely
hostile
US media
which
accused
Saudi
Arabia
of
fostering
terrorism
has
forced a
change
in
attitude.
Early
attempts
to cope
brought
faltering
and
often
ambiguous
statements
from
uneasy
senior
officials.
However
Foreign
Minister
Prince
Saud
al-Faisal
on
Tuesday
went
further
than
ever
before
in
clarifying
Saudi
Arabia's
position,
even if
it is
still
wide
open...
...If
the
United
States
asked
Riyadh
to join
a war on
Iraq,
"we
will not
join,"
Prince
Saud
told
reporters
at only
the
second
of his
weekly
briefings,
a new
move to
push the
kingdom's
point of
view...
..."If
the
United
Nations
asked
Saudi
Arabia
to join,
depending
on the
material
breach
that
they
should
show and
prove,
Saudi
Arabia
will
decide
in
accordance
with its
national
interests,"
the
minister
said...
...In
other
words,
the
kingdom
will not
decide
until it
absolutely
has
to..."
Source: AFP
[Jan. 9,
2003]
SAUDI
ARABIA
WANTS
U.N.
EVIDENCE
IRAQ HAS
MASS
DESTRUCTION
WEAPONS
BEFORE
DECIDING
ON
INVOLVEMENT
IN WAR
"Saudi
Arabia
wants to
see U.N.
evidence
Iraq has
been
developing
weapons
of mass
destruction
before
deciding
whether
to
participate
in any
U.S.-led
war
against
President
Saddam
Hussein,
Saudi
Foreign
Minister
Saud
al-Faisal
said
[Jan.
7]...
..."We
will not
take
part in
a war
against
Iraq
upon a
U.S. or
a
British
request,"
Prince
Saud
told a
news
conference
in the
capital,
Riyadh.
But if
there
was a
U.N.
request,
he said
the
kingdom
would
study
U.N.
evidence
Baghdad
has been
developing
banned
non-conventional
weapons
before
making
its
final
decision.
"If
the
United
Nations
asks
Saudi
Arabia
to join,
depending
on the
material
breach
they
show and
depending
on the
proof
they
show,
Saudi
Arabia
will
decide,"
Prince
Saud
said..."
Source: AP
SAUDIS
EARN
POLITICAL
POINTS,
REVENUE
WITH
EXTRA
OIL
Apparently
anxious
to win
favor
with the
US,
Saudi
Arabia
is
quietly
acting
behind
the
scenes
to get
more oil
into
world
markets,
making
up for
the
shortages
caused
by
Venezuela's
political
crisis
and
sparing
the Bush
administration
from
pressure
to tap
its
strategic
petroleum
reserves.
While
the
Saudis
continue
to
maintain
that
they
would
not
allow US
troops
to use
their
territory
to
attack
Iraq,
they
seem to
be
making
up for
it by
responding
to
requests
for more
Saudi
oil,
taking
some of
the heat
off oil
prices...
...the
Saudis'
market
moves,
confirmed
by
traders,
reflect
a
growing
concern
within
the
Saudi
leadership
that the
kingdom
could be
"excluded"
from
consultations
in the
aftermath
of an
impending
war with
Iraq...
..."
Source:
Energy
Intelligence
Briefing
[Jan. 9,
2003]
[Expired
Link]
SAUDIS
TREAD
LIGHTLY
ON USE
OF
PRIZED
AIR BASE
"PRINCE
SULTAN
AIR
BASE,
Saudi
Arabia
-- The
U.S. jet
fighters
that
roar off
from
this
base in
the
barren
center
of Saudi
Arabia
to
patrol
the
southern
'no-fly
zone'
over
Iraq
could
star in
any
U.S.-led
war on
the
regime
of
Saddam
Hussein.
But
adding
that
duty
would
require
Saudi
permission,
a
sensitive
issue
amid
rising
resentment
toward
America
in the
country
and a
worsening
of
U.S.-Saudi
relations....
...Deputy
Defense
Minister
Prince
Khaled
bin
Sultan
said
Wednesday
that no
'official
request'
had been
made for
use of
the
base,
but
affirmed
general
support
of
American
interests.
'I think
we both
understand
that our
cooperation
is solid
for 60
years,
and we
both
consider
each
other's
concerns
and
interests,'
he said
at his
Riyadh
office.
'Based
on that,
I am
sure our
leadership
will
reach
the best
solution...'"
[Expired
Link]
WHILE
LIEBERMAN
HASN'T
DECLARED,
HE'S
ALREADY
IN
MIDDLE
EAST
QUAGMIRE
"When
John F.
Kennedy
ran for
president
in 1960,
some
asked if
a
Catholic
candidate
would be
beholden
to the
Catholic
Church
and the
pope. If
Sen.
Joseph
Lieberman
(D-Conn.)
announces
his
candidacy
for
president
- as he
is
expected
to do
later
this
month -
he may
try to
prove
that he
is not
beholden
to
Israel
or the
American
Jewish
lobby...
...analysts
say
Lieberman
may need
to
measure
his
comments
carefully
to avoid
accusations
that he
is a
pawn of
Jewish
interests.
To win
the
confidence
and
support
of some
voters,
Lieberman,
an
observant
Jew,
will
need to
prove
that he
would be
serving
the
United
States,
not
Israel,
analysts
say...
...When
Lieberman
toured
the
Middle
East
late
last
month,
he still
wasn't a
candidate
for
president.
Yet he
was more
than
just
another
visiting
politician...
...He
also
expressed
support
for a
Saudi
Arabian
initiative
that
offers
the
prospect
of peace
with the
Arab
world if
Israel
gives up
all the
land it
won in
the 1967
Six-Day
War,
among
other
conditions.
Israel
and many
American
Jewish
leaders
oppose a
full
withdrawal,
saying
it would
jeopardize
Israel's
security..."
Source: Jewish
Telegraphic
Agency
[Jan. 6,
2003]
WHO
WILL
CONTROL
IRAQ'S
OIL?
"'The
preferred
slogan
of those
opposed
to war
with
Iraq is
'No
blood
for
oil'--an
explicit
assumption
that the
Bush
administration,
dominated
by
former
oilmen,
is going
to war
primarily
to
secure
Iraq's
copious
reserves
for U.S.
oil
companies.
'Regime
change
to a
pro-U.S.
government
would
permit
the
privatization
of
Iraq's
state-controlled
oil
resources--and
a
bonanza
for U.S.
oil
companies,'
warns
Miriam
Pemberton
of
Washington's
left-wing
Institute
for
Policy
Studies.
Administration
officials,
on the
other
hand,
reject
any oil
connection
whatsoever.
When
asked,
on CBS
radio,
whether
the
likely
war is
over
oil,
Secretary
of
Defense
Donald
Rumsfeld
replied,
'It just
isn't.
There
are
certain
things
like
that,
myths
that are
floating
around.
I'm glad
you
asked.
It has
nothing
to do
with
oil,
literally
nothing
to do
with
oil...'
...The
neoconservatives
don't
worry
about
offending
potential
critics
in Iran,
Saudi
Arabia,
or Syria
because
they
think of
them as
enemies
who
should
eventually
be swept
aside by
the
installation
of a
democratic,
free-market
Iraq on
their
borders...
...And,
if Iraq
left
OPEC,
that
would
mean
that two
of the
world's
largest
oil
producers
(Russia
is the
other)
would be
outside
of the
cartel,
fundamentally
undermining
its
ability
to
regulate
world
output
and
prices.
That
would
probably
mean
lower
oil
prices,
but,
more
important
to the
neoconservatives,
it would
undermine
Saudi
Arabia's
economic
and
political
clout
and
perhaps
endanger
the
Saudi
regime
itself.
Says one
senior
official,
'I don't
think an
upheaval
or
splitting
apart of
Saudi
Arabia
would be
the
worst
thing. I
don't
see a
graceful
exit for
them.
... I
would
expect
them to
align
with
Syria
and Iran
and
Libya to
bleed us
in Iraq.
They may
become a
real
enemy in
five
years. I
don't
think we
can get
more
mileage
out of
this
relationship.'
This
official
said he
was
speaking
for
himself,
but
other
neoconservatives,
including
Wolfowitz,
share a
similar
outlook.
They see
the fall
of OPEC
and of
the
Saudi
regime
as a
desirable
outcome
of a
U.S.
ouster
of
Saddam...
...There
can be
little
question
that the
neoconservative
hawks
have
played a
decisive
role in
supplying
the
rationale
for
invasion.
But, in
the end,
as with
the
diplomatic
buildup
to war,
it is
likely
that
when it
comes to
determining
the
contours
of a
post-Saddam
Iraq,
the
doves
will
come out
on top.
When oil
is
involved
it is
realists,
not
radical
idealists,
who
usually
carry
the
day..."
Complete
report...
U.S.
SEES
OPPORTUNITY
TO
TRANSFORM
MIDEAST
"Buoyed
by the
experience
in
Afghanistan
and
harking
back as
far as
post-World
War II
Japan
and
Germany,
Bush
administration
officials
are
expressing
growing
confidence
that
they can
remake
the face
of the
entire
Middle
East if
Saddam
Hussein
is
overthrown--a
notion
derided
by
critics
as
dangerously
naive...
...'I
favor
regime
change.
But I
can tell
you that
I have
nothing
but
contempt
for
people
who say
it will
be
really
easy or
that
it's
going to
miraculously
solve
all
these
other
problems,'
said
David
Mack,
vice
president
of the
Middle
East
Institute
and a
senior
State
Department
official
during
the 1991
Persian
Gulf
war.
"To
say that
it will
inevitably
lead to
democratic
reforms
throughout
the Arab
world
and Iran
or that
it will
lead to
Arab-Israeli
peace is
just
simplistic."
[Expired
Link]
HIGHLIGHT
TRUTH OF
ISLAM:
ABDULLAH
RIYADH,
10
January
2003 -
Crown
Prince
Abdullah,
deputy
premier
and
commander
of the
National
Guard,
said
yesterday
that
Islam is
a
religion
of
tolerance
and
mercy
and
called
on
Muslims
to be
forgiving
and
avoid
disputes.
He also
urged
Muslims
to shun
violence
and
extremism.
Prince
Miteb
ibn
Abdullah,
assistant
deputy
commander
of the
National
Guard
for
military
affairs
and the
deputy
chief of
the
supreme
committee
for the
Janadriah
festival,
made
this
call on
Prince
Abdullah's
behalf
yesterday
at the
Janadriah
festival,
according
to Asharq
Al-Awsat.
Prince
Abdullah's
statement
said it
is the
collective
responsibility
of
Muslims
to
highlight
the
truth
about
Islam
and
clarify
the
doubts
raised
about
it..."
[Expired
Link]
|
REPORTING,
ANALYSES
&
COMMENTARY
...background
and
context
on
current
developments... |
| [Check
GulfWire
Perspectives
for more
analytical
reporting.]
REPORTS
ON
SAUDIZATION
FOR
SAUDI
YOUTHS,
NO JOB
IS TOO
MENIAL
ANYMORE
By Sal
Kurdi,
Special
to Arab
News
JEDDAH,
10
January
2003 -
Sary
Nazmi,
22,
joined a
restaurant
in one
of this
city's
prominent
malls
last
year as
a food
service
worker.
His
job
description
included
waiting
tables,
mopping
the
floor
and
preparing
food. He
was also
responsible
for
cleaning
the
grills
and
washing
the
kitchen
after
the
restaurant
had
closed.
Nazmi
is a
Saudi,
and he
was
doing
the kind
of work
which,
until
very
recently,
almost
all
Saudis
considered
beneath
them.
His
salary
was
SR1,900
a month.
Fahad
Al-Ghamdi,
26, is a
Saudi
taxi
driver.
In the
morning,
he
teaches
elementary
science
to
children
in one
of
Jeddah's
public
schools
for a
monthly
salary
of
SR5,000.
His
classes
start a
7 a.m.
and end
at 1
p.m. He
then
takes to
his
taxi,
and on
average
makes an
additional
SR3,500
a month
from
that
job.
"First,
I had to
get a
driver's
license
from the
Traffic
Department,"
Al-Ghamdi
told
Arab
News.
"I
had to
insure
my
driver's
license
with a
higher
premium
than the
regular
insurance.
Finally,
I had to
decide
if I
wanted
to be
self-employed
or
employed
by a
company."
Both
of these
last
options
have
their
merits,
he
added,
but
"if
you
choose
to be
self-employed,
all of
the
above
costs
are
going to
be
self-incurred.
In
addition,
you will
have to
buy your
own
taximeter.
All that
will set
you back
about
SR5,000."
The
government
recently
announced
that the
taxi
sector
is to be
Saudized
completely
within
two
years,
and so
there
are
likely
to be
many
more
drivers
like Al-Ghamdi
on the
road in
the near
future.
There
are
presently
an
estimated
45,000
taxi
drivers
in the
Kingdom,
only a
small
number
of whom
are
Saudis.
With
the
Kingdom's
population
rate of
3.3
percent,
one of
the
highest
in the
world,
the
result
is a
society
in which
the
under-15s
make up
42.4
percent
of the
population.
With
unemployment
on the
rise,
Saudization
is set
to
remain a
key
government
policy.
The
booming
local
retail
industry
has
created
many job
openings
for
Saudis
and it
is now
common
to walk
into a
retail
outlet
and be
greeted
by a
bilingual
Saudi
assistant.
Emad
Nasir,
25,
started
working
at Al-Baroom
shopping
center
here
three
years
after
graduating
from
high
school.
Nasir is
also
enrolled
in night
classes
at a
local
college.
He makes
about
SR3,500
a month.
Ali
Mubarak
Al-Zubaidy,
20, has
been a
Saudi
security
guard
for four
months.
He
recently
moved
out of
his
parent's
home as
his
salary
of
SR1,800
allows
him to
rent a
one-bedroom
studio.
He is
trying
to
complete
his high
school
education
but
finds
that his
12-hour
work
shift is
getting
in the
way.
However,
his job
gives
him the
benefit
of
health
insurance
and a
clothing
allowance.
"Working
as a
security
guard is
an easy
task,"
he says.
"I'll
be
promoted
in eight
months,
then
I'll get
a
month's
vacation."
Until
then,
Zubaidy
will be
working
seven
days a
week.
Back
in the
shopping
mall
restaurant,
Sary
Namzi
has been
promoted
to
assistant
manager
trainee
and is
now
working
a
60-hour
week for
SR5,400.
In
addition
to
working
full
time, he
is
studying
at King
Abdul
Aziz
University
for a
degree
in
business
administration.
Nazmi
recalls
that his
parents
were
very
reluctant
to see
him take
a job in
the
service
industry.
And his
clients
were
even
more
uncomfortable
when
they
found
that it
was a
Saudi
who was
waiting
on them.
But
his
friends
were
supportive,
as they
were
facing
similar
situations
in their
own
lives.
Indeed,
with
more and
more of
his
friends
taking
up jobs
that
were
once
deemed
fit only
for an
immigrant
labor
force,
Nazmi no
longer
feels
that he
was
doing
something
out of
the
ordinary.
Source:
Arab
News
SAUDIS
AS
DOMESTIC
HELPERS
Dr.
Khairiyah
Al-Saqaf/
Al-Jazirah
The
time has
come for
us to
establish
special
training
centers
to
provide
employment
opportunities
for
Saudi
women
willing
to work
as
domestic
helpers.
We need
qualified
and
trusted
people
to take
on such
jobs as
cleaning,
cooking,
baby-sitting
and
other
household
chores.
The
need for
trained
women
domestic
workers
is no
less
important
than
hiring
qualified
men and
women
for any
other
job.
The
nature
of the
lives we
lead
today
with all
their
complications
and
restraints
makes
such a
project
imperative.
We must
not
forget
the
social
problems
which
have
resulted
from our
heavy
reliance
on
foreign
workers,
especially
domestic
helpers.
The
risks
that
families
- and in
particular
children
- face
because
of
foreign
workers
are
substantial.
There is
also the
problem
of
working
Saudi
mothers
who find
themselves
forced
to hire
domestic
helpers
or take
extended
leave
from
work and
perhaps
risk
losing
their
jobs.
In
the
absence
of a
child
care
system
that
gives
working
women
enough
time to
look
after
their
children,
many
women
are
forced
to stay
at home.
When
they are
finally
free to
return
to work,
they
often
find
they no
longer
have a
job.
Setting
up
centers
for
training
domestic
workers
should
be
seriously
considered.
Women
willing
to work
as
helpers
in
families
should
be given
special
training
before
being
allowed
to care
for
children
whose
parents
are away
at work
- or to
do any
other
house
work at
all.
Terms of
employment
must
include
working
hours,
salaries,
days
off;
everything
must be
clearly
defined
so that
all
parties
know
what is
required
and
expected
of them.
Apart
from
giving
jobs to
Saudi
women
and
providing
families
with
trained
and
trustworthy
workers,
such an
arrangement
would
reduce
dependence
on
foreign
workers
and
protect
our
children
from
abuse.
Work
is
worship
and God
created
people
to do
different
kinds of
jobs
according
to their
physical
and
mental
powers.
There is
nothing
wrong
with our
women
taking
such
jobs as
long as
the job
allows
them to
live
decent
lives
without
being
dependent
on
others.
Arab
News,
From the
Local
Press,
January
8, 2003 |
| |
REFORMS
VITAL TO
BOOST
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
IN
KINGDOM
By
Mushtak
Parker
LONDON,
6
January
2003 -
With the
threat
of war
against
Iraq
looming
ominously
over the
region,
and
stability
continuing
to be
undermined
by the
ongoing
"war
against
terrorism",
the Gulf
region
is faced
with a
difficult
year
ahead in
2003.
The
cushion
of
rising
oil
prices,
due to
the Iraq
crisis
and the
prolonged
strike
by oil
workers
in
Venezuela
may give
a false
sense of
economic
security,
underpinned
by an
immediate
upward
pressure
on crude
oil
prices
in first
quarter
2003. By
Jan. 1,
2003,
the
price
for
Brent
blend
crude
was
hovering
over the
$30 per
barrel
mark.
External
factors
apart,
countries
such as
Saudi
Arabia
are
faced
with
daunting
internal
economic
challenges
which
are more
to do
with
structural
reforms
than
with the
benchmark
price of
Brent
crude.
Reports
from
Japan
suggest
that
Saudi
Aramco
plans to
cut oil
exports
to
Japan,
South
Korea
and
Thailand,
its
three
main
Asian
customers,
in
January
2003 by
22
percent.
This
apparently
in line
with the
new OPEC
agreement
to cut
production
to
sustain
realistic
world
oil
prices
and to
offset
the
impact
of quota
cheating
by other
countries.
While
Asian
economies,
save
Japan,
are
projected
to enjoy
the best
GDP
growth
rates in
2003 by
far, the
impact
of the
sluggish
recovery
of the
US,
European,
and
Japanese
economies
may yet
burst
the
projected
Asian
growth
bubble,
especially
if the
US,
Europe
and
Japan
sleepwalk
into
recession.
The net
impact
would be
a
downward
pressure
on Asian
oil
imports.
Economists
commend
the
Kingdom's
recent
economic
reforms
including
the
adoption
of a new
foreign
investment
law;
allowing
foreigners
to own
land;
and the
introduction
of a
comprehensive
privatization
strategy.
But they
agree
that the
pace of
reform
has to
be much
more
urgent,
and
reforms
transparent,
realistically
budgeted,
refined,
and
professionally
implemented.
This
was also
the
unequivocal
message
of the
recent
International
Monetary
Fund (IMF's)
Article
IV
Consultations
on Saudi
Arabia.
The fund
in
addition
recommended
removing
further
barriers
to
entry,
and
urgent
fiscal
transparency
and
reforms.
At
the
'Future
Vision
for the
Saudi
Economy'
symposium
organized
by the
Planning
Ministry
and the
World
Bank in
October
in
Riyadh,
speakers
overwhelmingly
acknowledged
the
problems
facing
the
Saudi
economy;
the gaps
in
policy
making;
and the
need for
change
to meet
the
challenges
of a
rapidly
growing
population,
of which
some 70
percent
is under
25-years-old.
In this
context,
compared
to only
two
years
ago, the
Kingdom's
business
and
financial
environment
has
changed
significantly
for the
better.
During
2003, a
new
insurance
law,
stock
exchange
law, and
capital
markets
law,
will
almost
certainly
be
promulgated.
According
to Dr.
Abdulrahman
Al-Jaafary,
chairman
of the
Finance
Committee
of the
consultative
Shoura
Council,
all 67
articles
of the
draft
Stock
Market
Law, for
instance,
were
debated
and
approved
at end
December
2002. A
key
provision
of the
new law
is the
establishment
of a
Stock
Market
Commission
with
judicial
powers
and
reporting
directly
to the
Council
of
Ministers,
the
Saudi
Cabinet.
However,
implementation
of new
legislation
has been
erratic
in some
recent
instances.
The
adoption
of
compulsory
motor
insurance
from
November
2002 was
both
confusing
and
shambolic.
Is the
NCCI
(National
Company
for
Cooperative
Insurance)
the sole
provider
of the
ruksha
(insurance)
or not?
Is the
ruksha
issued
against
the
driving
license,
driver,
or
vehicle?
Is the
cooperative
insurance
Shariah-compliant?
These
are
perhaps
questions
to be
answered
in a
separate
analysis,
but they
were
certainly
not
forthcoming
at the
time of
their
introduction.
The
reality
is that
Saudi
police
on the
ground
are now
accepting
motor
insurance
certificates
issued
by all
legal
insurance
providers,
not only
NCCI,
despite
the
latter's
earlier
pronouncement
that
it's
ruksha
is the
only
legally
acceptable
one.
There
would be
no room
for such
confusion
when the
capital
markets
and
stock
exchange
laws are
promulgated.
Otherwise
it will
have the
opposite
effect
and
frighten
investors
and
companies
away.
Without
a
flourishing
capital
markets,
the
growth
of the
financial
services
sector
in the
Kingdom
will
remain
stunted
and
largely
parochial.
This in
turn
will
affect
the
asset
quality
and
product
innovation
of the
sector
in the
long
run.
In
the area
of
foreign
investment,
while
the
establishment
of the
Saudi
Arabian
General
Investment
Authority
(SAGIA)
in April
2000,
headed
by
Governor
Prince
Abdullah
ibn
Faisal,
has gone
some way
in
making
the
Kingdom
a more
investor-friendly
environment,
the acid
test for
attracting
greater
foreign
direct
investment
(FDI)
flows
are the
all-important
economic
reform
package
and
regional
stability.
In
the
period
April
2000 to
early
September
2001,
the
value of
FDI
investments
in the
Kingdom
reached
$9.2
billion,
according
to SAGIA.
However,
since
9/11,
this
figure
had
dropped
dramatically
to $3.5
billion
at the
beginning
of
December
2002.
While
the
fallout
of the
terrorist
attacks
in New
York and
Washington
was
undoubtedly
an
important
factor,
foreign
investors
continue
to be
frustrated
by the
agonizingly
slow
pace of
socio-economic
reforms
in the
Kingdom.
The
new
foreign
investment
law, for
example,
was
widely
welcomed,
but its
so-called
'Negative
List'
which
stipulated
those
sectors
of
economic
activity
still
barred
to
foreigners,
though
reviewed
and
revised
a number
of
times,
continues
to be a
point of
friction.
Telecoms,
insurance,
oil
exploration,
security,
retail,
education,
transport
are just
some of
the 19
economic
sectors
still
barred
to
foreign
investors,
and
there
has been
no
indication
from
SAGIA or
the
Supreme
Economic
Council
of
further
reforms
with
respect
to the
list.
Many
bankers
and
corporates,
including
some in
the
Kingdom,
would
like it
to be
abolished
outright,
with the
government
retaining
control
through
a golden
share in
strategic
sectors
such as
oil
exploration,
and
perhaps
transport.
The
Kingdom's
aggressive
Saudization
policy
too is a
negative
for
foreign
companies,
who
prefer
to
operate
in an
open
labor
market,
dictated
by
experience,
qualifications,
and the
rubrics
of
market
supply
and
demand.
These
problems
are
exacerbated
by the
poor
perception
of Saudi
workers
among
both
national
and
expatriate
managers;
and an
over-protective
Saudi
labor
legislation
which is
a
disincentive
for
foreign
firms
hiring
locals
because
it
becomes
almost
impossible
to
terminate
the
employment
of
unreliable
and
inefficient
workers.
The
government
to be
fair has
launched
a
training
and
education
fund
aimed at
tackling
unemployment.
Another
area for
urgent
reform
is that
of
statistics
and
information.
Very
often
these
are
inadequate,
non-transparent
in terms
of
collation
and
methodology,
too
optimistic,
and very
poorly
disseminated.
An open
statistical
culture
is
seriously
lacking,
and this
applies
in
general
both to
government
departments
and to
private-sector
corporates.
Of
course
no one
expects
companies
and
agencies
to
divulge
intellectual
property,
but
information
as to
policy,
strategy,
performance,
terms of
trade,
indicators
and so
on,
ought to
be in
the
public
domain,
and
should
be a
right
enshrined
in law.
The
lack of
transparency
in
statistics
is
underpinned
by the
generally
poor and
under-developed
corporate
communications
culture
at the
agencies
and
companies.
After
all,
quality,
reliable,
independent,
and
up-to-date
information
is a
resource
and a
vital
tool
which
companies
and
agencies
can use
in
formulating
investment,
manufacturing,
marketing
and
other
strategies.
Saudi
Labor
&
Social
Affairs
Minister
Ali Al-Namlah,
for
instance,
admitted
in
October
2003
that
"we
don't
know the
exact
rate of
unemployment
due to
the
absence
of
correct
information
on the
number
of job
seekers
and
vacant
positions."
Nevertheless,
in the
Saudi
context
the
minister
should
be
commended
for his
candor,
and has
now
suggested
ways how
labor
statistics
and data
could be
better
collated
"by
linking
all
labor
offices
in the
Kingdom
with the
ministry's
database."
Unfortunately,
that
would
not
suffice,
for it
is the
methodology
and
criteria
for
collation
that is
important.
In the
UK, for
instance,
unemployment
figures
are
based on
the
number
of
people
signing
on for
benefits
and
seeking
employment
at job
centers.
There
is no
distinction
between
male and
female
workers,
although
gender
employment
analysis
can be
extrapolated.
In
Saudi
Arabia
this is
not
possible
because
there is
no
benefit
system
as in
the UK.
The
official
government
estimate
for
Saudi
male
unemployment
is 8
percent.
However,
most
bank
analysts
put the
figure
at
double
the
official
rate at
about 16
percent,
while
others
still
talk
about 25
percent
and
higher
levels
of male
unemployment.
Because
unemployment
is a
sensitive
issue in
any
economy,
a key
policy
objective
is to
try to
create
jobs. In
the
Kingdom,
most
Saudis
are
employed
by the
state
and its
utilities.
This,
together
with
high
defence
commitments
and the
sluggish
performance
of the
non-oil
sector,
puts
pressure
on
public
expenditure,
which
cannot
be
sustained
through
oil
revenues
only
because
of their
volatility
and
dependence
on world
crude
oil
prices.
With the
result
over the
last
decade
or so,
the
Kingdom
has had
almost a
persistent
budget
deficit,
forcing
the
government
to
borrow
more
from
local
banks.
In
2001,
for
instance,
according
to the
IMF, the
Saudi
budget
showed a
deficit
of 4
percent
of GDP.
With the
result
that the
government's
domestic
debt
increased
to a
staggering
92
percent
of GDP
in mid
2001.
Only
Italy of
the G-10
countries
has a
domestic
debt
comparable
to that
of Saudi
Arabia.
The
Kingdom's
own
forecast
for this
year
suggests
a
smaller
deficit
for
fiscal
year
(FY)
2002
than the
earlier
estimate
of $12
billion,
thanks
mainly
to
rising
oil
prices.
Revenues
for
FY2002
were
projected
at $41.9
billion
against
expenditures
of $53.9
billion,
but on
the
basis of
an oil
price of
$16-$17
per
barrel.
Saudi
oil
prices
have
been
hovering
above
the $25
per
barrel
since
August
2002,
and last
week
Brent
blend
crude
prices
were
quoted
at $30
per
barrel.
Firmer
oil
prices
into
2003
should
mean a
knock-on
effect
on
reducing
the
budget
deficit
in
FY2003.
A recent
Saudi
British
Bank
study
projected
oil
revenues
in 2003
to jump
to $54.7
billion.
But
expenditure
too is
projected
to
increase
to $58.2
billion.
Increased
oil
revenues
is not a
panacea.
It
depends
on how
the
extra
revenues
are
utilized
and
whether
public
spending
can be
controlled.
Any
increase
in the
latter
will
immediately
offset
the
windfall
revenues.
Not
surprisingly,
the IMF
has
strongly
recommended
a more
efficient
use of
temporary
unanticipated
windfall
rises in
the oil
price.
Instead
of using
such
revenues
through
stop-gap
measures,
it could
be
invested
in a
special
Saudi
Arabia
fund to
smooth
out any
budgetary
shortfalls
on a
permanent
roll-over
basis.
Because
of
non-transparency
in
fiscal
policy,
it
remains
difficult
to
assess
allocation
of
resources.
In fact,
the fund
rightly
calls
for
government
expenditure
to be
subject
to
explicitly
defined
rules
and
regulations.
In
2002,
firmer
oil
prices
will no
doubt
improve
the
fiscal
situation.
The IMF
also
projects
the
Kingdom
to
achieve
non-oil
GDP
growth
of 4
percent
in 2002.
The
Saudi
British
Bank,
however,
in a
recent
study,
projected
that the
Kingdom's
non-oil
sector
GDP
growth
in 2003
will
fall to
around
3.5
percent.
This on
the
condition
that
economic
fundamentals
such as
inflation,
trade
balance,
buoyant
oil
revenues
and good
domestic
liquidity,
remain
strong.
There
is a
clear
acknowledgement
by
Riyadh
that
dependence
on oil
and gas
for
revenues
is no
longer a
sustainable
economic
strategy.
Saudi
Finance
&
National
Economy
Minister
Ibrahim
Al-Assaf,
speaking
at the
symposium
in
Riyadh,
concurred
that
"dependence
on oil
revenues
and
consequently
public
spending
as the
main
driving
force
for
economic
activity
has made
our
economy
vulnerable
to
changes
in
international
oil
markets.
Heavy
dependence
on a
main
source
of
revenue
linked
to the
developments
in the
world
economy
and
conditions
in oil
markets
constitutes
a major
challenge
to the
fiscal
policy
of the
Kingdom."
Privatization,
another
potential
source
of
revenue,
also is
not the
panacea
that
some
monetarist
economists
would
like us
to
believe.
It is
fraught
with
both
structural,
political
and
market
risks,
depending
on which
sector
and
utility.
The slow
uptake
of the
recent
Saudi
Telecoms
(STC)
partial
sell-off
is a
poignant
reminder
of that.
It is
unlikely
that the
Kingdom
will
even
contemplate
the
introduction
of
marginal
income
tax. But
the
pressure
may be
on to
introduce
an
interim
sales
tax
(VAT)
during
the
coming
year.
The
economic
forecasts
for
FY2003,
in the
Saudi
context,
are not
going to
change
dramatically
over the
span of
one
year. It
is too
short an
economic
cycle.
What the
Kingdom
needs is
a
definitive
long
term
plan
such as
Malaysia's
2020
Vision,
not only
for the
macro
economy,
but also
for the
financial
and
other
sectors.
This
would
give a
clearer
timetable
and
target
for the
introduction
and
implementation
of
reforms.
Source:
Arab
News |
| |
SAD
CASE OF
MUSLIM
AMERICAN
CHARITIES
By Fawaz
Turki,
Special
to Arab
News
Can
you pare
down the
ten
amendments
of the
Bill of
Rights
to a
manageable,
no-nonsense
six?
Well,
not
really,
but
government
authorities
sure as
heck can
try that
under
the
table,
especially
when it
comes to
dealing
with
those
dreadful
"Middle
Eastern
types"
running
around
the
country.
For
surely
you have
read
about
what had
happened
to those
equally
dreadful
Italian,
Irish,
Jewish
and
Japanese
types
before
them
early in
the last
century.
In
mid-December,
hundreds
of
visitors
and
would-be
immigrants
were
arrested
by the
Immigration
and
Naturalization
Service
a day
after
they
showed
up in
response
to a
government-mandated
registration
drive
for
people
from
Iran,
Iraq,
Libya,
Sudan
and
other
Middle
Eastern
countries
who were
in the
United
States
on
temporary
visas.
After
being
photographed,
fingerprinted
and
interviewed,
they
were
taken
into
custody
and
charged
with
overstaying
their
visas,
though
many,
according
to press
reports,
had
nearly
completed
the
process
for
legal
residency.
The INS
said
about
7,500
immigrants
from
these
countries
would,
in due
course,
be
similarly
affected
nationwide.
Sure,
since
Sept.
11, the
name of
the game
has been
security,
security,
security.
And you
let that
slide.
Outside
the US,
at
secret
CIA
interrogation
centers
around
the
world,
from
Bagram
in
Afghanistan
to
Guantanamo
Bay in
Cuba,
terrorist
suspects
are
"sometimes
kept
standing
or
kneeling
for
hours,
in black
hoods or
spray-painted
goggles
... or
held in
awkward,
painful
positions
and
deprived
of sleep
with a
24-hour
bombardment
of
lights -
subject
to what
are
known as
'stress
and
duress'
techniques,"
wrote
Dana
Priest
and
Barton
Gellman
in a
front-page
report
in the
Washington
Post,
Dec. 26.
Those
suspects
who do
not
cooperate
are
turned
over
("rendered"
in CIA
parlance)
to
foreign
intelligence
services
whose
practice
of
torture
has been
documented
by the
US
government
and
human
rights
organizations.
And
sure,
you say
again,
these
are
difficult
times we
live in,
America
is
threatened,
and
though
these
practices
are
egregious,
they
could
be, if
not
justified,
at least
explained.
And
since
Sept.
11,
hundreds
of
suspects
have
been
rounded
up and
held in
federal
jails
around
the
country
without
access
to
lawyers,
relatives
and even
to news
media, a
policy
that is
not only
short-sighted,
but
lacks
any
valid
penological
objective.
Yes,
troubling,
but you
argue
once
again
that,
well,
America
can't
afford
to let
its
guard
down.
But
what of
the
assault
on
Arab-American
Muslims,
whose
faith
requires
its
adherents
to
observe
zakah,
the
donation
of a
portion
of their
annual
income
to
charity?
Should
Muslims
nationwide
be
considered
supporters
of
terrorism
because
they had
donated
to
charities
that,
after
Sept.
11,
became
designated
as
conduits
to
terrorists?
Looks
like it.
Since
those
planes
crashed
into the
Twin
Towers,
the
Pentagon
and a
Pennsylvania
field,
virtually
all
Muslim
charities
in the
US have
been
designated
as
financiers
of
terrorism,
and in
some
cases
their
officers
arrested
and
charged,
including
the
Texas-based
Holy
Land
Foundation,
the
largest
and most
respected
Muslim
charity
in the
country,
the
equivalent
of the
Christian
United
Way and
the
Jewish
United
Jewish
Appeal.
Spokesmen
for the
Muslim
Public
Affairs
Council,
a Long
Beach,
California
group
that
lobbies
for
Muslim
causes,
have
told the
press
that
among
American
Muslims,
particularly
those
from the
Middle
East,
there is
a
feeling
that
were
they to
write
checks
to their
favorite
charities
these
days
"the
government
will
come
after
us."
Though
Muslims
in the
US are
not by
any
means a
homogenous
community,
coming
as they
do from
different
countries
and
ethnic
backgrounds,
with
different
cultures
and
different
languages,
they now
are
beginning
to feel
a
homogeneity
that
they had
not felt
before,
identifying
with one
another
in no
small
part
because
the US
government,
and in
many
cases
American
society
in
general,
are
treating
them as
one.
In
effect,
by
waging
the
battle
for
homeland
security,
the US
may be
forging
a new
minority
identity.
As
Peter
Sherry,
professor
of
government
at
Claremont
McKenna
College,
wrote
recently
in the
Washington
Post's
Outlook
section:
"We
are
pushing
these
groups
together
into a
political
coalition
around
grievances
against
the
government
that
will not
soon be
forgotten.
The
outcome
will
almost
certainly
be a new
minority
group
whose
claims
against
America
will be
a source
of
rancor
and
division
long
after
the
current
crisis
has
ceased."
This
was
evident
at the
MPAC
annual
conference
in Long
Beach
during
the last
weekend
of
December,
which
attracted
1,500
attendees,
where
the
defining
theme
was the
need for
American
Muslims
to forge
an
overarching
group
consciousness.
It
appears
that
whereas,
in the
past,
America's
Muslims
had
never
felt an
urgent
need to
unite,
now
being
subjected
to
intimidation
by law
enforcement
agencies,
from the
FBI to
the INS,
will
reinforce
that
need.
And
make no
mistake
about
it,
intimidation
there
has
been.
One
well-known
Muslim
American
entrepreneur
in
Florida,
Jesse
Maali,
was
arrested
recently
and his
home
searched
for
allegedly
donating
lavishly
to
Palestinian
and
Muslim
charities.
The
prosecutors
even
brought
up the
nebulous
issue of
a letter
that
Maali
had
written
to an
Arab
newspaper
in
London
in which
it was
claimed
he had
supported
suicide
bombers.
So
what
happened
to the
First
Amendment
that
prohibits
government
abridging
the
freedom
of
speech
of
citizens?
You
would
think
that
Maali
should
be free
to write
whatever
the heck
he darn
well
pleases,
wherever
he
pleases,
wouldn't
you? And
while
we're at
it, what
has
happened
to the
Fourth
Amendment
that
affirms
"the
right of
the
people
to be
secure
in their
persons,
houses,
papers
and
effects,
against
unreasonable
searches
and
seizures"?
As
more and
more
Muslim
charities
are shut
down,
with
their
assets
frozen
(the
Benevolence
International
Fund
being
the
latest
victim)
we
wonder
about
all
that.
All
of us
wonder
about it
- those
of us
who
believe
in
America,
whether
we were
born,
grew up,
or came
here
fresh
off the
boat.
(
disinherited@yahoo.com
)
Arab
News,
Opinion,
January
9, 2003 |
|
|
|
|