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| Wednesday,
June 11, 2003 |
Item
of Interest |
| The
Approaching Turning Point...
Conclusions --
The
Approaching Turning Point: The
Future of U.S. Relations with the
Gulf States
by
F. Gregory Gause, III
[Fifth
and Final in a Series]
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| Editor's
Note:
The
Saudi-American Forum
wishes to thank Dr.
Gause for permission
to share this
important
contribution to the
dialogue on US-Saudi
relations with you.
This paper was
originally published
by the Brookings
Institution, Saban
Center for Middle
East Policy.
"The
Approaching Turning
Point: The Future of
U.S. Relations with
the Gulf
States" is
being provided to
Saudi-American Forum
members in weekly
serials due to the
length of the
report. A
complete version is
posted to the Saudi-American
Forum library.
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Conclusions
By F. Gregory Gause, III
| America's
direct military
role in Gulf
security began
with the collapse
of the U.
S.-Iranian
relationship with
the Iranian
Revolution in
1979. As long as
Washington's
relationship with
this largest and
most powerful Gulf
state remains
hostile, there
will be a need for
an American
military presence
in the area. A
friendly regime in
Baghdad might
mitigate that
need, but will not
eliminate it.
Indeed, the first
major American
military
deployment in the
area occurred in
1987, when the
United States was
still cooperating
with Saddam's
regime. The fact
that the Iranian
regime seems now
to be openly
pursuing the
acquisition of
nuclear weapons
will only
intensify American
worries about
security in the
area, and will
reinforce for the
Gulf monarchies
the importance of
their American
security link.
Until there is a
fundamental change
in
American-Iranian
relations, or
until the world
economy ceases to
run on oil, the U.
S. is fated to be
directly involved
politically and
militarily in the
Gulf. |
...The
fact that the
Iranian regime
seems now to be
openly
pursuing
the acquisition of
nuclear
weapons
will only
intensify American
worries
about security in
the area, and will
reinforce for the
Gulf
monarchies
the importance of
their
American
security link...
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Until
there is a
fundamental change
in American-Iranian
relations, or until
the world economy
ceases to run on
oil, the U. S. is fated
to be directly
involved politically
and militarily in
the Gulf.
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| The
structure of the
U. S. involvement
in the Gulf, as it
has developed
since the Gulf War
of 1990-91,
however, has to
change. It is
politically
impossible to
maintain the kind
of open military
relationship with
Saudi Arabia that
has developed over
the last 12 years.
The attacks of
September 11th and
their fallout in
both our country
and Saudi Arabia
have made the
political costs of
maintaining a
permanent American
military presence
in the kingdom too
great, both for
the U. S. and for
the Saudis. Of
necessity, the U.
S. will have to
rely more on the
smaller Gulf
countries to
support its
military presence
in the
region. |
...
the
U. S. will have to
rely more on the
smaller Gulf
countries to
support its
military presence
in the
region.
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The
new, post-Iraq war security
structure for American
policy toward the GCC states
should rest on these bases:
- A
return to a security
relationship with Saudi
Arabia characteristic of
the pre-Gulf War period:
close and cooperative,
but without American
military forces
stationed in the
kingdom.
- Avoiding
the temptation to see
Saudi Arabia as an
enemy. Our decades-long
relationship with the
Saudis gives us
important leverage with
them on oil issues and
on the war on terrorism.
We need to use this
leverage to push them to
further cooperation with
the United States. A
policy of open hostility
toward Riyadh forfeits
that leverage, with no
prospect of producing a
friendlier government in
Arabia.
- A
nuanced position on
domestic political
reform in Saudi Arabia,
that openly emphasizes
economic change,
discretely encourages
political reform but not
a rush to elections, and
stays away from highly
charged social-cultural
issues like women's
rights and the education
system. We should not
hesitate to state our
support for American
values on these issues
latter issues
rhetorically, and to
encourage change that
comes from within the
Saudi system, but we
need to avoid making
them the centerpiece of
the relationship.
"The
Approaching Turning Point:
The Future of U.S. Relations
with the Gulf States"
is being provided to
Saudi-American Forum members
in weekly serials due to the
length of the report.
A complete version is posted
to the Saudi-American
Forum library.
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ABOUT
THE AUTHOR
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F.
Gregory Gause, III
is an Associate
Professor of
political science
at the University
of Vermont, and
Director of the
University's
Middle East
Studies Program.
He was previously
on the faculty of
Columbia
University
(1987-1995) and
was Fellow for
Arab and Islamic
Studies at the
Council on Foreign
Relations in New
York (1993-1994). |
His
research interests focus on
the international politics
of the Middle East, with a
particular interest in the
Arabian Peninsula and the
Persian/ Arabian Gulf. He
has published two books: Oil
Monarchies: Domestic and
Security Challenges in the
Arab Gulf States
(Council on Foreign
Relations Press, 1994) and Saudi-Yemeni
Relations: Domestic
Structures and Foreign
Influence (Columbia
University Press, 1990). His
scholarly articles have
appeared in Foreign
Affairs, Middle East
Journal, Washington
Quarterly, Journal of
International Affairs,
Review of International
Studies and in other
journals and edited volumes.
He has testified on Gulf
issues before the Committee
on International Relations
of the U. S. House of
Representatives.
Professor
Gause received his Ph. D. in
political science from
Harvard University in 1987,
and studied Arabic at the
American University in Cairo
and Middlebury College. |
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